War and Tourism in Warsaw

It is worth noting at the outset that the impact of war has had a varying impact on tourist traffic and the use of tourist services and leisure-related offers. The table below clearly shows that some entities are enjoying greater interest than before the pandemic, or are returning to pre-pandemic statistics, while others, on the contrary, are facing a wave of cancellations and cancelled reservations. So the situation is different for different service providers. This is the first conclusion that appears when analyzing the impact of the war beyond our eastern border on tourism in Warsaw.

The war in Ukraine is primarily affecting the image of our country, cities and regions. The situation is worsened by the lack of geographical education and the pigeonholing of Poland as an Eastern European country. It is also worth remembering that Warsaw is perceived as the first point of a possible armed conflict (political and administrative reasons).

In the opinion of our members, the situation is as follows:

Venue - Incoming traffic from abroad may be at risk in the coming months. Hotel reservations and then their unblocking are observed. It is known that international events attract business tourists who may be blocked for many reasons (the main one is the fear of organizing the event: "because you don't know what will happen").

The most visible effect of the war in Ukraine in relation to the facilities is the cancellation of a large event (10,000 people) and its relocation to another European city due to the fact that the halls of the facility where the event was to take place are currently occupied by refugees.

Tour operator, DMC - After February 24, a lot has appeared cancellation of tourist events as well as MICE projects for April and May. At the moment, there are already cancellations for the following months. A small number of events have been postponed to later dates or next year. The very small number of inquiries about tourist groups is also worrying, and There is a virtual lack of enquiries regarding business groups and MICE. Another big problem is also the outflow of specialized staff from tourism to other industries. A large part of office workers, tour guides, guides, project managers are already tired of the prolonged stagnation in incoming tourism, they see no chance for a quick improvement in the situation and change jobs. The question arises whether the staff remaining in incoming tourism will be able to handle professionally foreign tourists when the situation returns to normal.

In the opinion of another tour operator – short term situation for incoming tourism is dramatic. Cancelled projects, no new inquiries. Customers are clearly waiting for the situation to develop. Unfortunately, we are experiencing that Poland has not broken away from the classification of an "Eastern European country" in the tourist sense. Slovakia, Hungary do not record such dramatic declines.

In the opinion of the next DMC – War in Ukraine, has a very negative impact on the arrivals of foreign tourists to Warsaw and generally to Poland. It is noted cancellations of previously made reservations, no inquiries about new offers. There is a lack of geopolitical orientation – overseas contractors (USA, Middle East, Asia) – have stopped talking, because, quote: "there is a war in Europe". European neighbors know better what is happening here, so there are some groups, e.g. from Germany, but they do not concern Warsaw. Another problem is hotel prices. Large cities, especially Warsaw, are full of refugees and migrants from Ukraine. Some hotels filled in 90% dictate very high prices. Such a situation in Warsaw hotels may significantly limit domestic traffic, especially tourist traffic.

Attraction tourist – due to its specificity and approaching high season the interest is very high. Not only from individual clients, but also companies are planning integration/motivational trips. And above all clients from Poland. Reservations from abroad (from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia) are a small percentage.

Educational and cultural institution – The war situation certainly had an impact on school trips. There are already the first reports from groups that had difficulty finding accommodation in Warsaw (it is not known how the situation will develop, but there is a lack of cheaper accommodation in Warsaw).

Restaurants – The war does not significantly affect the number of customers. The communication plan has been changed. In the opinion of the restaurant covid was harder. The residents of Warsaw are a great salvation for this group, although there is a waiting list for foreign tourist traffic.

Hotel in metropolitan area – With the outbreak of the war at the end of February, sudden cancellations of meetings and conferences were observed by companies from Poland (especially integration events in the coming months starting in March). As for the foreign business client, there is still fear and uncertainty on his part about planning events in Poland.

Hotels in Warsaw – in March they record 82 % occupancy. ADR – PLN 328. In the same period of the previous year, 15% occupancy was recorded. The increase in occupancy and prices in hotel facilities in Warsaw (compared to other Polish cities since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine) results from the fact of accepting/booking not only refugees from Ukraine, but also from mass relocations from the territories of Ukraine and Belarus carried out by corporations (large and small international companies) and international governmental and non-governmental institutions (embassies, consulates, various institutions, NGOs, etc.). Some corporate relocations are probably also related to the exit of international companies from the Russian market. 

Emirates Airline – Due to the situation in Ukraine, incoming traffic from the UAE is practically marginal.

Data from the Tourist Information Point – The number of people visiting the Tourist Information Point in February and March compared to the same period before the pandemic is similar. However, the majority of people are from Ukraine, who ask about various matters related to their stay in Warsaw, not only tourist-related.

To sum up:

1. The biggest changes on the supply side: making places available for new residents, lessons, animations. Some facilities have welcomed over 20 thousand guests since the beginning of the war.
2. Domestic tourism. We invested very heavily as an association in the children and youth segment. There is great interest in school trips, but in the long term there is concern about the availability of places in hotels and accommodation. Hotel prices rising.
3. Foreign tourism is the most unpredictable segment and records the greatest losses (cancellation of events, cancellation of reservations) due to war operations in Ukraine. In the long term, Poland is in the circle of interest of tourists, who are, however, waiting for the "end of the war"
4. The effects of war affect service providers in different ways, and for some of them they are no worse than the pandemic.
5. A parallel effect that will affect tourism in the coming months – outflow of personnel to other industries.